Hot GDP and oil revive December hike bets
Hormuz tanker attack fuels energy-driven inflation fear
AI spending backlash drags everything down
Tech shares led the selloff on worries that hundreds of billions in AI spending will not deliver returns. Intel plunged about 28.6%, its worst drop since 1974, on weak revenue guidance; Nvidia fell 4.2%, Amazon fell around 1.4% after missing revenue and earnings, and Alphabet had just suffered a record 12%+ plunge that erased $500 billion after AI outlays turned free cash flow negative. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.8% to 7,580.07 for its worst day since June, the Nasdaq sank 2.9% to 25,437.00, and the Dow dropped 572 points to 51,770.31. The Nasdaq is down 5.3% for October, its worst month since March last year. Commerzbank analysts said forced selling and margin calls from the tech rout likely spilled into metals, calling the precious-metals fall exaggerated and expecting a recovery. Independent trader Tai Wong said: "The sky is falling. Metals will not be able to escape the gravity well of a nasty stock" selloff.
Miners sink faster than the metals
What comes next: energy, PCE and the Fed
Traders see energy as the swing factor. Any escalation that lifts oil further would entrench inflation worries and December-hike bets; de-escalation and softer inflation prints could ease real yields and let oversold metals bounce. Silver sits about 25% below its 200-day moving average, the widest gap since the March 2020 liquidity crunch, leaving positioning extremely stretched in both directions.
