South Carolina's Safe Red Seat Is Now a Coin Flip
A 48-48 tie shocks the reddest map
"A little nervous": Graham braces for six more days
At a campaign event in Aiken on Tuesday night, a supporter tapped Graham on the shoulder and said: "Don't lose the Senate." She replied, "I'm trying real hard not to." Inside the ballroom, mostly to herself, she added: "Man, I'm so tired. Six more days. I can do it." Trump has visited the state twice in two weeks to boost Graham, framing the contest as a referendum on his second term.
The Republican pitch: Trump's heir in her brother's seat
Graham is running as Trump's handpicked successor. She opposes abortion rights, says she fully trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran, and argues that anyone in the country illegally should be deported "immediately." The Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican Senate super PAC, has pledged $5 million to the race. Republican strategists say Graham will still win, pointing to a tough national environment but a Republican-leaning undecided vote.
Why Andrews is surging: independents and a cash machine
Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, leads Graham 57 percent to 37 percent among independents and peels away 7 percent of Republican voters, according to the Times/Siena poll. The same poll finds 55 percent of South Carolina voters disapprove of Trump's job performance, against 42 percent who approve. Party identification in the sample is 38 percent Republican, 27 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. Money favors Andrews: Graham holds less than $2 million, while Andrews raised more than $9 million from July through September for a campaign total of $19.7 million.
From agency director to senator in three days
What comes next: a fractured GOP and Senate control
Five days out, Republicans are openly split. One anonymous House Republican called the closeness "embarrassing," saying the party won the seat by 18 points before and Graham is "dragging Rs down the ticket." Forecasters still favor her: DDHQ gives Graham a 67 percent chance to win. In the same Times/Siena poll, Republican Alan Wilson leads Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51 percent to 44 percent for governor. An Andrews upset would give South Carolina its first Democratic senator in 28 years and could decide the Senate majority.
