Early Voting Surges Past 43 Million as Senate Battlegrounds Light Up
A national wave: 43 million ballots already cast
Texas leads the surge with 6.3 million early votes
The surge is sharpest in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor's races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50 percent increase. The Senate contest pits Democrat James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott seeks reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The state's two-week in-person early voting period ends Friday. Through Thursday, the total topped 6.4 million ballots, already far past the state's prior midterm early-voting record of 5.5 million in-person ballots in 2018.
Harris County jumps as big urban counties post double-digit gains
Maine, Michigan, Kansas and the Carolinas all run hot
A 53-47 Senate majority is on the line
Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority in a midterm whose battleground map has stretched deep into long-Republican territory. Democrats are defending tough seats while hunting upsets in states former President Trump carried comfortably, including South Carolina, where he won by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. An earlier AP check two weeks from Election Day found Texas up 74 percent versus 2022, with Maine, North Carolina and Ohio each up more than 30 percent.
Georgia nears two million votes in a marquee Senate fight
Georgia is another focal point. Nearly two million voters, more than 25 percent of registered voters, had cast ballots as of Monday, according to the secretary of state. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Representative Mike Collins; Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state Trump won in 2024. Early voting there runs through Friday, October 30, with Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
Big numbers, limited predictions
Analysts caution that early-vote totals measure enthusiasm, not outcomes. Democrats hold an edge in released party-registration tallies, but big states such as Texas do not break ballots down by party, and registration is an imperfect predictor of candidate choice. Turnout composition on Election Day itself will decide whether the Senate map actually shifts.
What to watch as early voting closes
With early voting ending Friday in states including Texas and Georgia, attention turns to Election Day turnout. If the battleground pace holds through November 3, the fight for Senate control could tighten considerably. Either way, participation is already running well ahead of 2022, giving both parties a burst of momentum heading into the final days.
